Banning social media could disrupt Nepal's entire internet service

 Banning social media could disrupt Nepal's entire internet service

Earlier, the government had banned TikTok. TikTok could not be shut down immediately. It was very difficult for us to do so. It took about a month. Even though big mobile service and internet service providers did it immediately, other small operators could not.

Just because you say you want to shut down a social media site, it does not mean it will be shut down overnight. It takes some time. Technically, it will be shut down gradually. Service providers may shut it down, but there is no guarantee that users will stop using the banned platform. In the case of TikTok, even though we shut it down after a month, the bandwidth consumed by TikTok also decreased dramatically. We were happy for a moment, saying that bandwidth was saved. After that, the use of VPNs gradually started increasing. After TikTok was shut down, the level of VPN use we saw was unprecedented. One-third of the total internet traffic used by TikTok was going through VPNs. Due to which the bandwidth consumption of service providers returned to its previous state.

Before TikTok was shut down, bandwidth traffic was managed through a local cache server (Local CDN Cache Server). Due to this, our internet bandwidth was also saved. However, after the ban, the local cache server did not work. Then, whatever bandwidth traffic was coming through the VPN, it came directly through the international bandwidth. Due to which the service providers had to bear a huge loss. Therefore, it is not possible to completely shut down the social network. Users use social networks that are closed in some way or the other. If one platform is closed, they migrate to another.

Today, Nepal's international bandwidth import is about 2.5 TBPS. We are streaming about 10 TBPS of bandwidth locally through all service providers. 80 to 90 percent of it is consumed by social networks. Thinking like this, we pull 2.5 TBPS of international bandwidth and manage 10 TBPS locally. In such a situation, if a social network is shut down, that traffic will immediately decrease to one-third. There is no need to serve local bandwidth for that. As soon as the social network that is shut down is used using the same VPN and Open DNS, the international bandwidth traffic will increase again. The bandwidth consumption will not decrease immediately after the shutdown, but it will increase gradually thereafter. If the international bandwidth consumption today is 2.5 TBPS, it may increase to about seven TBPS in a week to 10 days after the government shuts down the social network.

We are currently importing 2.5 TBPS of bandwidth. We are delivering about 10 TBPS locally through cache servers and CDNs. That means we have local infrastructure. We are serving the bandwidth required for internet traffic through that infrastructure. Now the bandwidth consumption of Nepal's social networks is about 90 percent of the total supply, so the international bandwidth will increase as soon as it is shut down. Operators have built their capacity for 2.5 Tbps today. It is possible to expand it to three terabits gradually. Because a buffer is kept in case the internet goes down. However, if that traffic suddenly increases, 10 Tbps cannot be handled by the current pipes. This means that our international bandwidth import will double, triple. The second is that there will be excessive pressure on internet traffic. Because no service provider has prepared itself to manage that much international bandwidth. As soon as the pressure increases, the quality of the internet deteriorates.

Due to which, if social media is shut down, Nepal's internet will be degraded as a whole and the internet experience for users will be very poor. The third is that there is a possibility that the price of the internet will become expensive. If the amount I am spending on international bandwidth today doubles, then I will have to collect the cost from the user. That risk is very big.

Similarly, after using a VPN, all the user's data will first leave Nepal. After processing by an external server, it is finally sent to Nepal. Most of the VPNs used in Nepal are free. Free VPNs do not provide that much convenience. After the VPN is free, it has the purpose of collecting user data. In a way that the user does not know, all the data of Nepali users is sent to the VPN server. They can do whatever they want with that data.

Meanwhile, service providers have also started expanding the bandwidth. From 2.5 to 5 TBPS. The internet is expensive, but when the local cache does not work, the latency increases because the content users view through VPN comes from an international route. Today, that content is within Nepal. Nepali users are receiving that content in less than 10 milliseconds. When using a VPN, it takes more than 100 milliseconds at the minimum. Due to which the content coming from outside is slow Enough.

Now let's talk about the impact of shutting down social media. Earlier, when the government banned TikTok, it stopped providing the cache server that it had been providing to internet service providers for free. TikTok had two cache servers. One used to send its own server, the other used a CDN called Akamai. Now both TikTok and Akamai have stopped sending that server to Nepal. Now, they do not want to risk their investment by sending millions of dollars to Nepal because of the fear of how long the Nepal government will change its mind and get it shut down. They are still in a wait-and-see situation. It has been a year since TikTok was shut down. Still, they have not sent their infrastructure to telecom operators or internet service providers. Due to which, even today, TikTok's traffic is coming through international routes. 400 to 500 Gbps TikTok traffic is coming from international bandwidth. If they had installed the cache server themselves, the bandwidth would have been saved.

The traffic of companies including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and others is continuously increasing in Nepal. They are starting discussions that it is time to build their infrastructure as their dependence on social media is increasing. There is talk of moving the work forward by 2025. However, after the government repeatedly announced that it would shut down the social media, they are starting to hesitate. The decision to ban social media is discouraging such companies.

Facebook had planned to build its infrastructure in Nepal in 2026. When the decision was almost finalized, they backed down when the government decided to ban it if it is not listed. This risks pushing it back further rather than helping build Nepal's digital ecosystem. What is the government's objective in banning social media? It is not clear what the government is trying to do in the name of regulation. Does the government mean by registering here, paying taxes, hiring a person here and doing what I say, or will it remove or block any content that is prohibited by Nepal's laws if a user uploads it? What is the government trying to say? Will social media accept everything we say as soon as the company is listed? That is definitely not going to happen.

And will all social networks be closed? Will those who have been listed be opened or will they be allowed to open and the big social networks be banned, saying, "You come, It seems that the government should also pay attention to another issue. It should examine how many jobs it is providing in Nepal by depending on social media platforms and how many organizations are directly dependent on them. This number is in the millions. There are thousands of organizations. If the government shuts them down, they will be deprived of business from the first day. There are hundreds of organizations that operate only using the Facebook platform. They will be hit hard. The government has not properly studied the impact of disabling social media.

They said to shut them down, and they did. There has been no discussion on the contribution that social media is making to the overall economy of Nepal and the challenges that will arise if it is shut down. Neither the Nepal Telecommunication Authority nor the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology has cared about this issue. There has been no discussion. Here, two or four people sat down in Singha Durbar, called two or four people, and asked what would happen. It seems that this is how decisions are made. The government should pay attention to consultations with as many stakeholders as possible. It seems that the government took this decision in a hurry.